A perspective on AI risk
What is your p(doom)?
The probability that AI leads to human extinction or permanent loss of control. Eight questions to put your perspective into focus.
8 questions · About a minute
Your estimate
0%
p(doom)
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How it was calculated
Each answer assumed every step before it had happened. Catastrophe requires the whole chain, so the probabilities multiply.
Answer · mapped probabilityRunning total
p(doom) = P1 × P2 × P3 × P4 × P5 × P6 × P7 × P8
Inspired by Joseph Carlsmith's "Is Power-Seeking AI an Existential Risk?". Chained estimates tend to run low, since any single "no" breaks the chain, and they leave out other paths such as deliberate misuse. A thinking tool, not a forecast.
Compare with public figures
Publicly stated estimates. Ranges are placed at their midpoint, and definitions differ, so read loosely.